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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 10

Tennessee Titans 10 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 14-R.Bullock 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.13 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 10, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model