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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 31

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Tennessee Titans 16

What Actually Happened

(8:36) 7-C.McLaughlin 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.21 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 31, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.75 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP