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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 76

Tennessee Titans 13 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(10:39) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 58 yards to IND 18, Center-46-M.Cox. 21-N.Hines to IND 42 for 24 yards (29-J.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 76, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 34, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model