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MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
@
NYJ Home

New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
Sunday 2022-10-09 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

MIA
63.2%
NYJ
36.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • QB edge to MIA: Zach Wilson (NYJ) -0.164 vs Teddy Bridgewater (MIA) -0.002 EPA/dropback (MIA starting Teddy Bridgewater in place of Tua Tagovailoa)
  • MIA offense: +0.050 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: +0.059 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • MIA on 3 more days rest than NYJ

Predicted Final Score

MIA 25
–
NYJ 19
Projected margin: MIA by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

MIA

Cethan Carter TE Out Concussion
Tua Tagovailoa QB Out Concussion
Terron Armstead T Questionable Toe
Salvon Ahmed RB Questionable Back
Keion Crossen CB Questionable Glute
Tyreek Hill WR Questionable Quadricep
Xavien Howard CB Questionable Groin
Robert Jones G Questionable Back
Jaylen Waddle WR Questionable Groin

NYJ

Max Mitchell T Out Knee
Quincy Williams LB Out Ankle
Marcell Harris LB Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 17
–
NYJ 40

Prediction missed by 29 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:48 SAF NYJ (12:48) 5-T.Bridgewater pass incomplete short middle [1-A.Gardner]. PENALTY on MIA-5-T.Bridgewater, Intentional Grounding, 8 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY. MIA 0 – NYJ 2
  • Q1 03:10 FG NYJ (3:10) 6-G.Zuerlein 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. MIA 0 – NYJ 5
  • Q2 15:00 TD NYJ (15:00) (Shotgun) 32-Mi.Carter up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – NYJ 11
  • Q2 10:01 TD MIA (10:01) 31-R.Mostert right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – NYJ 12
  • Q2 02:45 TD NYJ (2:45) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson scrambles right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 7 – NYJ 18
  • Q2 00:06 TD MIA (:06) Direct snap to 81-D.Smythe. 81-D.Smythe up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 13 – NYJ 19
  • Q3 08:44 FG MIA (8:44) 7-J.Sanders 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. MIA 17 – NYJ 19
  • Q4 09:26 TD NYJ (9:26) (Shotgun) 32-Mi.Carter right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-52-E.Roberts was injured during the play. MIA 17 – NYJ 25
  • Q4 09:13 TD NYJ (9:13) 20-Br.Hall right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIA-98-R.Davis, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced between downs. MIA 17 – NYJ 32
  • Q4 04:31 TD NYJ (4:31) 10-B.Berrios left end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ-10-B.Berrios was injured during the play. MIA 17 – NYJ 39

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (12:57) 7-B.Mann punts 48 yards to MIA 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-21-A.Davis.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 16 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 40%

    (9:51) 7-B.Mann punts 43 yards to MIA 3, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-26-B.Echols.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 20 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (6:46) 4-T.Morstead punts 36 yards to NYJ 28, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 94%

    (3:10) 6-G.Zuerlein 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (:58) 4-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to NYJ 20, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (8:57) 7-B.Mann punts 43 yards to MIA 29, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 17-J.Waddle.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 7 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 82%

    (8:44) 7-J.Sanders 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 45%

    (5:30) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 84-C.Davis.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:06) 4-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to NYJ 7, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-43-A.Van Ginkel.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:32) 7-B.Mann punts 51 yards to MIA 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 10-T.Hill to MIA 21 for -2 yards (26-B.Echols; 34-J.Hardee).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 66%

    (13:19) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (7:36) 31-R.Mostert right end to MIA 30 for -4 yards (9-K.Alexander).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 7 at the 14 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 95%

    (1:06) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass incomplete short right to 3-M.Gaskin (30-M.Carter). Penalty on MIA, Illegal Formation, declined.