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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 44

New York Jets 19 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(5:30) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 84-C.Davis.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.09 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 44, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model