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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 66

Miami Dolphins 17 – New York Jets 33

What Actually Happened

(7:36) 31-R.Mostert right end to MIA 30 for -4 yards (9-K.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.55 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 66, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 24, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model