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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 14

Miami Dolphins 17 – New York Jets 40

What Actually Happened

(1:06) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass incomplete short right to 3-M.Gaskin (30-M.Carter). Penalty on MIA, Illegal Formation, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +4.35 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 14, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 24, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.78 EP