Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 55

Miami Dolphins 17 – New York Jets 19

(4:06) 4-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to NYJ 7, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-43-A.Van Ginkel.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.90 EP
65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 55, worth -3.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model