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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 36

Miami Dolphins 17 – New York Jets 19

What Actually Happened

(13:19) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.55 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 36, worth -2.00 EP
KICK +0.01 EP
What Happened
  • 62% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP