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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 67

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 5

What Actually Happened

(:58) 4-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to NYJ 20, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.03 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 67, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 25, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP