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Houston Texans

HC Lovie Smith
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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2022-10-09 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

HOU
38.3%
JAX
61.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to JAX: Trevor Lawrence (JAX) -0.004 vs Davis Mills (HOU) -0.131 EPA/dropback
  • JAX defense: -0.051 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • HOU defense: +0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 20
–
JAX 24
Projected margin: JAX by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

HOU

Blake Cashman LB Out Concussion
Austin Deculus T Out Ankle
Brevin Jordan TE Out Ankle
Chris Moore WR Out Hip
Jonathan Greenard DE Questionable Ankle
Jake Hansen LB Questionable Ankle

JAX

Folorunso Fatukasi DT Out Quadricep
K'Lavon Chaisson LB Questionable Ankle
Zay Jones WR Questionable Ankle
Cole Van Lanen G Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 13
–
JAX 6

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:25 FG JAX (1:25) 10-R.Patterson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. HOU 0 – JAX 3
  • Q2 12:29 FG HOU (12:29) 7-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 3 – JAX 3
  • Q2 03:28 FG HOU (3:28) 7-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 6 – JAX 3
  • Q2 00:11 FG JAX (:11) 10-R.Patterson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. Penalty on HOU-1-T.Smith, Defensive Offside, declined. HOU 6 – JAX 6
  • Q4 03:14 TD HOU (3:14) 31-D.Pierce up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 12 – JAX 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (14:09) 11-C.Johnston punts 57 yards to JAX 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 20 for 6 yards (44-J.Reeves-Maybin; 32-G.Wallow).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:36) 9-L.Cooke punts 58 yards to HOU 21, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 25-D.King to HOU 31 for 10 yards (42-A.Wingard, 6-C.Claybrooks).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 34%

    (10:23) 11-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to JAX 3, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-35-G.Arnold.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 6 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 47%

    (7:16) 9-L.Cooke punts 39 yards to HOU 4, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 25-D.King.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 8 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (5:36) 11-C.Johnston punts 57 yards to JAX 17, Center-46-J.Weeks. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 32 for 15 yards (34-T.Hairston).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (1:25) 10-R.Patterson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 76%

    (12:29) 7-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 63%

    (8:10) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to 13-C.Kirk (25-D.King).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 9 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 72%

    (3:28) 7-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 15 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 84%

    (:11) 10-R.Patterson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. Penalty on HOU-1-T.Smith, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.50 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 32%

    (2:01) 11-C.Johnston punts 40 yards to JAX 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 60%

    (12:34) (Shotgun) 25-J.Robinson up the middle to HOU 38 for no gain (58-C.Kirksey; 96-M.Collins).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (10:28) 11-C.Johnston punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:09) 9-L.Cooke punts 62 yards to HOU 23, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 1-T.Smith to HOU 26 for 3 yards (6-C.Claybrooks).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 30%

    (1:47) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep right to 17-E.Engram.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 49 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 32%

    (:47) 11-C.Johnston punts 36 yards to JAX 13, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.