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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 26

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(:11) 10-R.Patterson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. Penalty on HOU-1-T.Smith, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +3.46 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 26, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 36, worth -0.22 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model