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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Houston Texans
4th & 9 at the 49
Houston Texans 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6
What Actually Happened
(:47) 11-C.Johnston punts 36 yards to JAX 13, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
-0.38 EP
-
34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +0.94 EP
- 66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -1.06 EP
KICK
+0.04 EP
Model's Pick
- 30% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
- 70% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT
-0.12 EP
What Happened
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.12 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
