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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 48

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 11-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to JAX 3, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-35-G.Arnold.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.84 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 48, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -1.56 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model