Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 74

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

(5:36) 11-C.Johnston punts 57 yards to JAX 17, Center-46-J.Weeks. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 32 for 15 yards (34-T.Hairston).

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.15 EP
61% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 74, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model