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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 38

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(12:34) (Shotgun) 25-J.Robinson up the middle to HOU 38 for no gain (58-C.Kirksey; 96-M.Collins).

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.54 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 38, worth -1.90 EP
KICK +0.15 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model