Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 79

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 0

(12:36) 9-L.Cooke punts 58 yards to HOU 21, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 25-D.King to HOU 31 for 10 yards (42-A.Wingard, 6-C.Claybrooks).

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.95 EP
61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 79, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model