CHI @ MIN — 4th & Data

← Home

Away

Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus

Home

Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell

Sunday 2022-10-09 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 10.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

CHI

39.0%

MIN

61.0%

🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

CHI offense: -0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
Justin Fields (CHI): -0.181 EPA/dropback in prior starts
MIN offense: -0.050 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

CHI 20

–

MIN 22

Projected margin: MIN by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

CHI

Dane Cruikshank S Doubtful Hamstring

Jaylon Johnson CB Doubtful Quadricep

David Montgomery RB Questionable Ankle

MIN

Ben Ellefson TE Out Groin

Andrew Booth CB Questionable Quadricep

Jalen Nailor WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 22

–

MIN 29

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 08:18 TD MIN (8:18) 74-O.Udoh reported in as eligible. 4-D.Cook right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – MIN 6
Q1 06:11 FG CHI (6:11) 2-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 3 – MIN 7
Q2 15:00 TD MIN (15:00) 4-D.Cook right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 3 – MIN 13
Q2 07:23 TD MIN (7:23) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 5-J.Reagor for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 3 – MIN 20
Q2 01:12 TD CHI (1:12) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery up the middle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 9 – MIN 21
Q3 10:31 TD CHI (10:31) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle to 12-V.Jones for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 16 – MIN 21
Q3 01:09 FG CHI (1:09) 2-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 19 – MIN 21
Q4 09:31 FG CHI (9:31) 2-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 22 – MIN 21
Q4 02:29 TD MIN (2:29) 8-K.Cousins up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 22 – MIN 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 CHI 4th & 15 at the 31

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24% p(FG) 79%

(6:11) 2-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Q2 CHI 4th & 15 at the 91

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(13:50) 16-T.Gill punts 52 yards to MIN 39, Center-48-P.Scales. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 47 for 8 yards (31-Ja.Jones). FUMBLES (31-Ja.Jones), touched at MIN 49, and recovers at MIN 49. PENALTY on MIN-29-K.Boyd, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 39.
Q2 CHI 4th & 7 at the 60

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(4:15) 16-T.Gill punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.
Q2 MIN 4th & 11 at the 55

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(2:00) 14-R.Wright punts 15 yards to CHI 40, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds. PENALTY on MIN-98-D.Wonnum, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 40.
Q3 MIN 4th & 10 at the 33

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 75%

(7:38) 1-G.Joseph 51 yard field goal is BLOCKED (91-D.Robinson), Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Q3 CHI 4th & 4 at the 37

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44% p(FG) 67%

(3:18) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields scrambles up the middle to MIN 30 for 7 yards (54-E.Kendricks).
Q3 CHI 4th & 5 at the 25

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39% p(FG) 87%

(1:09) 2-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 33

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 49% p(FG) 75%

(9:31) 2-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.