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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 31

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(6:11) 2-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.70 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 31, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 41, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model