Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 91

Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(13:50) 16-T.Gill punts 52 yards to MIN 39, Center-48-P.Scales. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 47 for 8 yards (31-Ja.Jones). FUMBLES (31-Ja.Jones), touched at MIN 49, and recovers at MIN 49. PENALTY on MIN-29-K.Boyd, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 39.

The Three Options

GO -3.61 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.61 EP
70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 91, worth -5.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model