Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 55

Minnesota Vikings 21 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 14-R.Wright punts 15 yards to CHI 40, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds. PENALTY on MIN-98-D.Wonnum, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 40.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.96 EP
69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 55, worth -2.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model