4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 33

Chicago Bears 19 – Minnesota Vikings 21

What Actually Happened

(9:31) 2-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.86 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 33, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 43, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model