4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 60

Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 21

What Actually Happened

(4:15) 16-T.Gill punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.33 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 60, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 19, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model