4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 37

Chicago Bears 16 – Minnesota Vikings 21

What Actually Happened

(3:18) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields scrambles up the middle to MIN 30 for 7 yards (54-E.Kendricks).

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.73 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 37, worth -2.01 EP
KICK +0.31 EP
  • 67% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model