4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2022-10-09 · 13:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

ATL
32.6%
TB
67.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB defense: -0.105 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.112 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • ATL offense: -0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • TB offense: +0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • QB edge to TB: Tom Brady (TB) +0.126 vs Marcus Mariota (ATL) +0.124 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

ATL 20
–
TB 27
Projected margin: TB by 7 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

ATL

Kyle Pitts TE Out Hamstring

TB

Akiem Hicks DT Out Foot
Logan Ryan S Out Foot
Cameron Brate TE Out Concussion
Russell Gage WR Questionable Back
Julio Jones WR Questionable Knee
Breshad Perriman WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 15
–
TB 21

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 09:34 TD TB (9:34) (No Huddle) 7-L.Fournette right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – TB 6
  • Q2 01:21 FG TB (1:21) 3-R.Succop 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. ATL 0 – TB 10
  • Q2 00:03 FG TB (:03) 3-R.Succop 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. ATL 0 – TB 13
  • Q3 06:12 TD TB (6:12) 74-F.Johnson reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady pass short right to 7-L.Fournette for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – TB 19
  • Q4 13:44 TD ATL (13:44) (Shotgun) 35-A.Williams right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – TB 21
  • Q4 04:43 TD ATL (4:43) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short left to 17-O.Zaccheaus for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB-32-M.Edwards was injured during the play. ATL 13 – TB 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 8 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:39) 5-J.Camarda punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 17 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (10:51) 13-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to TB 23, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 1 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 95%

    (4:57) 7-L.Fournette left guard to ATL 15 for no gain (92-A.Ogundeji, 32-J.Hawkins).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 32%

    (15:00) 13-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to TB 12, Center-48-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-44-T.Andersen.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 28%

    (5:55) 13-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to TB 13, Center-48-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-35-A.Williams.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (1:21) 3-R.Succop 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 19 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 70%

    (:24) 7-Y.Koo 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 1 at the 73
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (13:11) (No Huddle) 1-M.Mariota up the middle to ATL 30 for 3 yards (45-D.White; 94-C.Nassib).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (10:42) 13-B.Pinion punts 62 yards to TB 2, Center-48-L.McCullough. 1-J.Darden ran ob at TB 26 for 24 yards (32-J.Hawkins).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 10 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:33) 13-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to TB 13, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 4 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (2:00) 5-J.Camarda punts 52 yards to ATL 29, Center-97-Z.Triner. 35-A.Williams to TB 43 for 28 yards (52-K.Britt; 33-K.Young).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (13:05) 5-J.Camarda punts 38 yards to ATL 31, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (9:56) 5-J.Camarda punts 42 yards to ATL 30, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.