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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 81

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 5-J.Camarda punts 52 yards to ATL 29, Center-97-Z.Triner. 35-A.Williams to TB 43 for 28 yards (52-K.Britt; 33-K.Young).

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.81 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 81, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 38, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model