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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 49

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 13-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to TB 12, Center-48-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-44-T.Andersen.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.87 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -1.53 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model