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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 73

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(13:11) (No Huddle) 1-M.Mariota up the middle to ATL 30 for 3 yards (45-D.White; 94-C.Nassib).

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.04 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model