Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 57

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

(3:33) 13-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to TB 13, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.99 EP
68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model