4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 51

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:55) 13-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to TB 13, Center-48-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-35-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.84 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.80 EP
KICK -1.59 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model