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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 17 at the 75

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:51) 13-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to TB 23, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.85 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model