4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
LA Away

Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Monday 2022-10-03 · 20:15 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

LA
47.2%
SF
52.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF defense: -0.105 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • SF offense: -0.068 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • LA offense: +0.019 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • QB edge to LA: Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +0.101 vs Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.160 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

LA 21
–
SF 23
Projected margin: SF by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

LA

Brian Allen C Out Knee
Cobie Durant CB Out Hamstring
David Edwards G Out Illness
David Long CB Out Groin

SF

Azeez Al-Shaair LB Out Knee
Tyrion Davis-Price RB Out Ankle
Tyler Kroft TE Out Knee
Tarvarius Moore S Out Hamstring
Trent Williams T Out Ankle
Danny Gray WR Doubtful Hip
Arik Armstead DE Questionable Foot
Ross Dwelley TE Questionable Rib
Javon Kinlaw DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 9
–
SF 24

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:53 FG LA (6:53) 8-M.Gay 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon. LA 3 – SF 0
  • Q1 02:52 TD SF (2:52) 22-J.Wilson left guard for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 3 – SF 6
  • Q2 06:26 FG LA (6:26) 8-M.Gay 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon. LA 6 – SF 7
  • Q2 03:01 TD SF (3:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 19-D.Samuel for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 52 YAC LA 6 – SF 13
  • Q3 04:28 FG LA (4:28) 8-M.Gay 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon. LA 9 – SF 14
  • Q4 14:56 FG SF (14:56) 9-R.Gould 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. LA 9 – SF 17
  • Q4 06:36 TD SF (6:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 29-T.Hufanga at SF 48. 29-T.Hufanga for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 9 – SF 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 12 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 90%

    (6:53) 8-M.Gay 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:38) 11-R.Dixon punts 56 yards to SF 26, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-26-T.Burgess.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 6 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 47%

    (12:49) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (11:58) 11-R.Dixon punts 57 yards to SF 22, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 10 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:38) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to LA 35, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (6:26) 8-M.Gay 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (:02) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete deep right.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 5 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 32%

    (12:18) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 31 yards to LA 18, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-48-O.Burks.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 26
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 84%

    (7:24) 3-C.Akers right guard to SF 22 for 4 yards (7-C.Ward).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (4:28) 8-M.Gay 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (14:56) 9-R.Gould 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:32) 11-R.Dixon punts 56 yards to SF 23, Center-42-M.Orzech. 3-R.McCloud to SF 45 for 22 yards (11-R.Dixon, 34-J.Funk).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 5 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 87%

    (8:43) 9-R.Gould 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 37 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 63%

    (2:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 10-C.Kupp to SF 24 for 13 yards (29-T.Hufanga). 2 YAC

  • Q4 SF 4th & 9 at the 83 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:54) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to LA 42, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.