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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 78

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(11:38) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to LA 35, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.57 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 78, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 35, worth -1.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model