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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 49

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(12:18) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 31 yards to LA 18, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-48-O.Burks.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.16 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
KICK -1.46 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model