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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 43

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(12:49) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.58 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.67 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP