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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 24

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Los Angeles Rams 9

What Actually Happened

(8:43) 9-R.Gould 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.73 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 34, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model