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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
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Houston Texans

HC David Culley
Sunday 2022-01-09 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread -10.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

TEN
60.5%
HOU
39.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.164 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Davis Mills (HOU): -0.141 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TEN offense: -0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • TEN defense: -0.114 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

TEN 23
–
HOU 20
Projected margin: TEN by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

TEN

Naquan Jones DT Out Knee
Teair Tart DT Out Ankle

HOU

Deshaun Watson QB Out Not injury related - personal matter
Chris Conley WR Questionable Knee
Jordan Akins TE Questionable Illness
Chris Moore WR Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 28
–
HOU 25

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 07:45 TD TEN (7:45) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 86-A.Firkser for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – HOU 0
  • Q2 01:40 TD TEN (1:40) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 11-A.Brown for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – HOU 0
  • Q2 00:15 TD TEN (:15) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 20 – HOU 0
  • Q3 09:54 TD HOU (9:54) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 15-C.Moore for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Flea Flicker TEN 21 – HOU 6
  • Q3 02:17 FG HOU (2:17) 7-K.Fairbairn 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. TEN 21 – HOU 10
  • Q4 11:48 TD HOU (11:48) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short middle to 89-D.Amendola for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 21 – HOU 16
  • Q4 07:04 TD TEN (7:04) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 2-J.Jones for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-M.Collins]. TEN 27 – HOU 18
  • Q4 04:08 TD HOU (4:08) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 89-D.Amendola for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 28 – HOU 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67%

    (12:23) 28-R.Burkhead left guard to HOU 43 for 3 yards (41-Z.Cunningham).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 10 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (10:52) 11-C.Johnston punts 39 yards to TEN 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers MUFFS catch, and recovers at TEN 16. 80-C.Rogers pushed ob at TEN 17 for 1 yard (24-T.Smith). Punt Hangtime: 3.1 sec

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (9:13) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to HOU 28, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-D.King pushed ob at HOU 41 for 13 yards (21-M.Farley). PENALTY on TEN-33-J.Wilkins, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 41. Punt Hangtime: 4.09 sec

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 7 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 56%

    (8:14) 11-C.Johnston punts 33 yards to TEN 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers. Punt Hangtime: 3.84s

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 5 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 88%

    (1:26) 14-R.Bullock 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 34%

    (14:23) 11-C.Johnston punts 42 yards to TEN 8, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 32 for 24 yards (26-R.Freeman). PENALTY on TEN-35-C.Jackson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 6 yards, enforced at TEN 12. Punt Hangtime: 4.46s

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 12 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (4:29) 11-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to TEN 7, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers ran ob at TEN 15 for 8 yards (33-A.Moore). Punt Hangtime: 4.37s

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (:53) 11-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to TEN 26, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 36 for 10 yards (43-N.Hewitt). Punt Hangtime: 3.67s

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 8 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:38) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to HOU 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-D.King to HOU 28 for 3 yards (41-Z.Cunningham). Punt Hangtime: 3.87s

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 9 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:28) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to HOU 27, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-D.King to HOU 35 for 8 yards (21-M.Farley). Punt Hangtime: 4.22s

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 8 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (2:17) 7-K.Fairbairn 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (:48) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 25-D.King. Punt Hangtime: 4.49s