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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 60

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:23) 28-R.Burkhead left guard to HOU 43 for 3 yards (41-Z.Cunningham).

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.59 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 60, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 19, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model