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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 71

Tennessee Titans 21 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to HOU 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-D.King to HOU 28 for 3 yards (41-Z.Cunningham). Punt Hangtime: 3.87s

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.93 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 71, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 29, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model