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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 13

Houston Texans 7 – Tennessee Titans 21

What Actually Happened

(2:17) 7-K.Fairbairn 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.83 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 13, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 23, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model