Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 76

Tennessee Titans 21 – Houston Texans 7

(6:28) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to HOU 27, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-D.King to HOU 35 for 8 yards (21-M.Farley). Punt Hangtime: 4.22s

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.30 EP
63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model