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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 73

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(:53) 11-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to TEN 26, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 36 for 10 yards (43-N.Hewitt). Punt Hangtime: 3.67s

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.14 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 73, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 31, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model