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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 41

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(8:14) 11-C.Johnston punts 33 yards to TEN 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers. Punt Hangtime: 3.84s

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.90 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model