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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Sunday 2022-01-09 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.5 O/U 38.0

Win Probability

CIN
45.4%
CLE
54.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Brandon Allen (CIN): -0.357 EPA/dropback in prior starts (CIN starting Brandon Allen in place of Joe Burrow)
  • CIN offense: +0.076 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Wind 22 mph
  • CLE defense: -0.034 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • CLE offense: -0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 20
–
CLE 21
Projected margin: CLE by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

CIN

Jalen Davis CB Out Ankle
Cameron Sample DE Out Hamstring
C.J. Uzomah TE Questionable Knee
Joe Burrow QB Questionable Not injury related - resting player
Sam Hubbard DE Questionable Thigh
Evan McPherson K Questionable right Groin
D.J. Reader DT Questionable Not injury related - resting player

CLE

Ronnie Harrison S Questionable Ankle
Troy Hill CB Questionable Knee
Kareem Hunt RB Questionable Ankle
John Johnson S Questionable Hamstring
David Njoku TE Questionable Shoulder
Denzel Ward CB Questionable Groin
Greedy Williams CB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 16
–
CLE 21

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:03 TD CLE (1:03) (No Huddle) 5-C.Keenum pass deep left to 80-J.Landry for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – CLE 6
  • Q2 11:27 TD CLE (11:27) (No Huddle) 30-D.Johnson right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – CLE 13
  • Q2 03:40 TD CIN (3:40) 5-C.Keenum sacked at CLE 23 for -11 yards (93-W.Ray). FUMBLES (93-W.Ray) [93-W.Ray], RECOVERED by CIN-41-T.Henderson at CLE 29. 41-T.Henderson for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – CLE 14
  • Q3 05:05 FG CIN (5:05) 3-E.Fry 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 10 – CLE 14
  • Q4 07:20 TD CLE (7:20) (Shotgun) 5-C.Keenum pass short right to 25-D.Felton for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 10 – CLE 20
  • Q4 02:31 TD CIN (2:31) 8-B.Allen pass short right to 25-C.Evans for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 16 – CLE 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 10 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:11) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to CLE 29, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 29 for no gain (17-S.Morgan).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 2 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (11:00) 2-D.Colquitt punts 35 yards to CIN 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 11 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 20%

    (9:10) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:06) 2-D.Colquitt punts 56 yards to CIN 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-T.Taylor pushed ob at CIN 20 for 11 yards (51-M.Wilson).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 10 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:25) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to CLE 15, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 21 for 6 yards (48-A.Calitro).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:12) 10-K.Huber punts 32 yards to CLE 42, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 8 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:56) 10-K.Huber punts 57 yards to CLE 13, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 21 for 8 yards (44-C.Johnston).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (8:05) 2-D.Colquitt punts 22 yards to CIN 48, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-36-M.Stewart.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (13:45) 2-D.Colquitt punts 37 yards to CIN 30, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 17 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 91%

    (5:05) 3-E.Fry 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (14:15) (Shotgun) 5-C.Keenum pass incomplete short left to 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 9 at the 97
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:25) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to CLE 48, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CIN 46 for 6 yards (80-M.Thomas). FUMBLES (80-M.Thomas), recovered by CLE-38-A.Green at CIN 46.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 1 at the 4 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

    (2:31) 8-B.Allen pass short right to 25-C.Evans for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.