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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 70

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(9:56) 10-K.Huber punts 57 yards to CLE 13, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 21 for 8 yards (44-C.Johnston).

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.89 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 70, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 28, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model