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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 2

Cleveland Browns 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(14:15) (Shotgun) 5-C.Keenum pass incomplete short left to 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

The Three Options

GO +3.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.47 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 2, worth +1.20 EP
KICK +2.49 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.24 EP
PUNT +0.49 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model