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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 67

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to CLE 15, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 21 for 6 yards (48-A.Calitro).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.93 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 67, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 25, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model