Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 97

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(13:25) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to CLE 48, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CIN 46 for 6 yards (80-M.Thomas). FUMBLES (80-M.Thomas), recovered by CLE-38-A.Green at CIN 46.

The Three Options

GO -3.74 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth -0.32 EP
59% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 97, worth -6.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model