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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 63

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(11:00) 2-D.Colquitt punts 35 yards to CIN 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.41 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 63, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP