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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 17 at the 18

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 3-E.Fry 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.42 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 18, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 28, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model